Let’s begin with the question of guilt: It’s NOT Obama’s fault that the world is currently in a break-up that no one can really see the end of.
But after the U.S. president has served in his post for almost six years, the reverse be allowed to state that the world of very important points are even more chaotic than when he took office.
And today we can see that the former Nobel Peace Prize winner at key points either miscalculated or underestimated the consequences of his desire to lead the United States back toward a more withdrawn global role.
What we see right now is a world in flux – towards a new international order without American leadership, many had expected after the end of the Cold War. A number of foci exhibit break-up.
1) Iraq and Afghanistan
Barack Obama went to the polls to finish America’s major wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
He has done so. The United States is largely out of Iraq and on the way out of Afghanistan.
But even though the U.S. – according to a new 259-page report to the U.S. Congress – now has posted more money in Afghanistan than the Americans from 1948 to 1952, gave Marshall Aid to Europe after World War II (109 billion Dollars against 103 billion. Dollars in today’s money), threatened Afghanistan already chaos.
It recently ongoing presidential election ended in accusations of electoral fraud that could undermine an already weak leadership, while the Taliban are just waiting to see the back of the last American soldiers.
But worse is the situation in Iraq. Without the 15,000 men by the American generals had hoped to have kept in Iraq, but the United States gave up trying to trump through, Obama had to admit that he had lost much of its influence in Iraq.
As Iraq descended into sectarian strife, which over the summer culminated in the al-Qaeda-related ‘Islamic State’ ran the Iraqi military overwhelmed and declared an Islamic caliphate state.
Add to this that the Kurds are trying to make it even more clear of Baghdad, then paint the picture of a solution in Iraq as a state.
The U.S. president refused to send military aid to the relatively moderate Syrian rebels, who originally opened the armed uprising against Syrian President Assad.
Obama was confident that Assad’s days were already talking and let even Assad’s tyranny use of chemical weapons with impunity, even though he had made it a ‘red line’.
Status: Assad is still there, but faces a strong opponent in the form of radical Islamists among other things related to the Islamic State.
The moderate rebels on the other hand penetrated. The carnage and refugees are also so huge that it has been a dramatic seen in historic proportions. And it continues.
While some of NATO’s membership countries in one of his military activist moments sent the planes out in the first place, as Libyan rebels toppled Moamar Gaddafi, President Obama attempted to keep the United States into the background.
There he sits still. In the background.
The U.S. president refused even to send military aid to the new Libyan government, who have never had control of the country, but rather loses grip more and more. In fact, the situation is so chaotic that Americans recently had to evacuate their embassy.
4) The Arab Spring in Egyptian
Libya was not the only failure of the so-called Arab Spring.
In one of his great speeches promised Barack Obama in Cairo in 2009 to stand on the side of democracy. He inspired the Egyptians, who had overthrown the longtime military dictator Hosni Mubarak, hope.
Today, the military back in power – albeit under a different general. And although the Obama administration after the military coup against the democratically elected Islamist Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and subsequent brutal persecution of Egyptian Islamists suspended its annual military aid of $ 10 billion, the relationship is already being normalized.
In April – nine months after the military coup – resumed the USA thus part of its military support and supplied Apache helicopters to the Egyptian military. Officially because the coup general now was democratically elected, but in addition, not having received guarantees – an improvement in the human rights situation.
Barack Obama came to power with the ambition to reset relations with Russia. It has failed.
After humiliated Obama in Syria and the Snowden case, annexed by Russian President Putin the Ukrainian Crimean peninsula and support right now the separatists that shake the entire foundation in neighboring Ukraine.
Obama and his European allies have responded with sanctions, but the point is that they have just re acted: They have been reactive, not proactive. And the West is, no matter how you look at it, were caught off guard by President Putin, in turn, has fueled one – especially for neighboring countries – terrifying nationalism, which in the worst case has got his own life.
As the West is trying to correct the behavior of the Russian president with penalties looking Putin apparently more towards China, which will further advance the global balance of power. Even if the Russian-Chinese relationship is anything but straight forward.
What matters right now is that they are linked by a desire to counterbalance U.S. and – to some extent – Europe.
Despite the United States’ strong support for Israel Obama never succeeded to put themselves through to the Israeli Netanyahu government. While a powerless Obama has expressed his outrage, Netanyahu has expanded Jewish settlements and thus subject to further poison out of an agreement with the Palestinians an independent state.
This has contributed to the radicalization that right now translates into a humanitarian disaster in a blood smeared Gaza. And a disaster when the U.S. probably at most one can hope to operate the fire extinguisher.
In this way also adds the disaster to the series of dramatic events that the U.S. might never be able to have avoided even if Obama as the leader of the world’s only superpower had assumed a much more active global leadership. But then again: Will anyone wonder call status quo successful?